A new United Nations report indicates that the global population is projected to start declining gradually around the mid-2080s, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century.
According to the World Population Prospects 2024, the estimated likelihood that the world’s population will peak within the current century is very high (probability of 80 per cent).
Here are key takeaways from the report:
- The world’s population is expected to continue growing over the coming fifty or sixty years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024
- After peaking, the global population is projected to start declining gradually, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century
- The estimated likelihood that the world’s population will peak within the current century is very high (probability of 80 per cent), This represents a major change compared to projections produced by the United Nations a decade ago, when the estimated probability that global population growth would end during the twentyfirst century was around 30 per cent
- The size of the world’s population in 2100 is now expected to be 6 per cent smaller – or about 700 million people fewer – than anticipated a decade ago. The earlier occurrence of a peak in the projected size of the global population is due to several factors including lower than-expected levels of fertility in recent years in some of the world’s largest countries, particularly China
- One in four people globally lives in a country whose population has already peaked in size
Already the population of 63 countries containing 28% of the world’s population of over 8.2 billion people peaked before 2024. This group includes China, Germany, Japan, and the Russian Federation.
In 48 countries and areas, representing 10 per cent of the world’s population in 2024, population size is projected to peak between 2025 and 2054. This group includes Brazil, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Türkiye and Vietnam.
That said, 126 countries, the majority in Africa are expected to continue experiencing growth past 2054, some which will continue growing through 2100.
Today, the global population is still increasing, but at an ever-slowing pace. Yet, the population of 126 countries and areas is likely to continue growing through 2054, potentially reaching a peak later in the century or beyond 2100.16
This group includes some of the world’s most populous countries: India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States of America.
According to the report, the number of people living in these locations is projected to increase by 38 per cent through 2054. In 76 locations, the size of the populations may potentially peak in or after 2100.
Among the 126, the populations of nine countries, including:
- Angola
- Central African Republic
- Democratic Republic of the Congo
- Niger
- Nigeria
- Somalia
are likely to grow exponentially, with populations doubling in size or more between 2024 and 2054.
More than one-fifth of the projected increase in the global population between 2024 and 2054 is expected to be concentrated in these nine countries.
Due to this rapid growth, the ranking of the most populous countries in the world will likely change, with Pakistan and eventually Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo overtaking the United States of America in terms of population size, and the United Republic of Tanzania likely joining the list of the ten largest countries by the end of the century.
Note: A blue arrow indicates that a country has the same rank in the two given years, a yellow arrow indicates that a country has increased in rank and a green arrow indicates that a country’s ranking has fallen.
While African countries look set to be dominating population growth, the report observed slightly faster-than-anticipated fertility declines in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa. These include:
- Kenya
- Niger
- Nigeria
- Uganda, and
- Zambia
Conversely, some countries including:
- Afghanistan
- Democratic Republic of the Congo
- Ethiopia
- Pakistan, and
- Yemen
have experienced slower declines than previously expected.
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